Once again we look forward to the publishing market for the upcoming publishing cycle. It is so useful for an author to be aware of trends and what books are actually selling. This is particularly important in non-fiction, which really has to tap into the mood of the times. However it is equally true that a book can actually start a new global trend if it unleashes an entirely new concept on the world. US influencer Mel Robbins’ new book, The Let Them Theory, is probably just such a book that is set to launch a new sentence in our lexicon. It also shows the power of podcasters, social media and celebrities in selling books.
But a novelist, too, should take a good look at what is being sold and note rising genres (like romantasy) and others that are out of fashion (like chic lit and grim-dark novels).
I always advise authors to look at publishing trends when starting the process of writing a book, and below, I have gathered the key trends in both the US, European and South African markets by chatting with booksellers, publishers and fellow literary agents.
There are a few points worth noting ahead of our look at the trends.
1. We can’t predict a bestseller. Despite all the marketing tricks and analytics of the market, some books simply rise without publishers and agents driving the process at all. There are simply books that capture readers’ imaginations and become their own phenomena, and we don’t always know which ones they will be. We also get book we think will fly, but they gently drop off the shelves in three months.
2. Certain genres always sell well. There is always a shelf and readers for the big guns: romance, thrillers and crime in the fiction world. This is true for sports, finance, business and current affairs in the non-fiction realm.
3. Longevity helps sales. The longer a book sits on the shelf, the more copies it sells. When writing a book, ask yourself, is this timeless, and will it still hold its story in 10 years? You will see this trend emerge below.
4. The book you are starting now will take 2 – 3 years to come to market. Notice the trends and write into the future, but it is also important to stick to a good story and have fun while you write.
5. Most of the traditional publishers’ 2025 book lists are full, and so you are really writing into 2026.
6. Traditionally published books are just a fraction of the market and independent (and self published) books continue to grow and grow in volume. These trends really highlight what ‘is selling’. The truth is that readers seldom look at the publishing house, rather they buy on the basis of recommendations, the book’s promise and reader reviews.
7. Watch out for AI. AI may be changing the world, but the world of creativity and books will resist this. It will probably fail in the long run, but for now, authors of integrity will do well to steer very clear of using AI to write a book. Amazon has strict AI policies and will reject your book if it detects AI has been used.
Trend # Romantasy
Romantasy, romantic fantasy, or even fantasy romance is a sub-genre of fantasy where the romantic element is the plot's driving force. Or is it a subgenre of romance? We do, however, know that they are smoking hot and set in fantasy worlds. The global superstars driving sales are Sarah J Maas (her Throne of Glass and A Court of Thorns and Roses series have sold 37m copies worldwide in 38 languages) and Rebecca Yarros, whose novel Iron Flame broke all records and now has Fourth Wing, taking Amazon’s #1 spot. Book three is due out soon, and global pre-orders are massive.
Trend # Escapism
This shows in both international and local markets as titles by big-name serial novelists dominate and grow. What is a bestseller list without names like James Patterson, Daniella Steele, Nora Roberts, Sidney Sheldon, JD Robb, Dean Koonz, Jeffery Archer, Martina Cole, Tami Hoag, Deon Meyer, Dan Brown, Robert Ludlum, Michael Crichton, Ken Follet, Wilbur Smith. Remember that publishers are always looking to grow the next breed of these superstars, and you need a few solid novels under your belt to start to get this level of traction and sales. It is also a factor movies and series’ on streaming platforms like Netflix and Apple TV often inform book trends in novels as readers get used to faster and tighter plotting and more exaggerated characters and scenarios.
Trend # Perennial
Batya Bricker, Exclusive Books general manager, stresses this point. The books in the top 10 year after year tend to be the same old evergreen ones. Pop into any bookshop or look at the Amazon bestseller list below, and you will see the same titles dominating. Sadly, in smaller territories, these are consistently US-based big-name authors. You will always see names like Robin Sharma’s 5am Club. James Clear’s Atomik Habits. Robert Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad Poor Dad (yes, revised and updated and updated and updated). It goes to show that a lot of high book sales are linked to staying power.
Trend # Speculative Fiction
Despite working in the book world, I am still unsure exactly what this genre entails. We do, like to group books into categories as it makes it easier to place and sell them, and this new ‘super genre’ crops up a lot. It seems to be an umbrella genre of fiction that covers all subgenres not set in the ‘real word’, including fantasy worlds, magic and the supernatural, undiscovered scientific principles, and even extraterrestrial life. The bottom line is that it sells well globally. This is not the case however in South Africa where sci-fi and fantasy still doesn’t sell strongly.
Trend # Fast
Publishers love books that come out fast and sit in the current affairs category. Consider pitching a book to a publisher that is topical, quick and well-researched. A triple-threat. These books don’t have the longevity factor, but they will be scooped up on a current affairs trend. Already a publishing house is bringing out a book by the daughter of Gisèle Pelicot, whose husband was convicted for repeatedly drugging and raping her over a number of years in I’ll Never Call Him Dad Again by Caroline Darian (Lagom).
Trend #audio
Okay, so you have to have a written book first, but it is good to know that listeners are also readers now. In the US the market share of audiobooks overtook that of ebooks in 2024 for the first time as more players like Spotify enter the market that was previously dominated by Audible. Please note that this does not mean audiobooks have overtaken print books, which still outsell digital books. Audio now accounts for approximately 11% of the tradebook market, according to data from the Association of American Publishers. Devotees of audiobooks (dare we call them readers?) say their eyes are tired by screen time, and hence, they are moving away from e-readers. Buyers also want to listen to a book while exercising.
Trend #Christian
I have watched this trend for years, and now ‘books of faith’ in the Christian genre are taking over more and more shelf space at general bookshop retailers. They show strong and rising sales. In South Africa, look out for local books like Disciple: Walking with God by Rorisang Thandekiso on the bestseller lists, which will pave the way for more books of this nature.
Trend #giftbooks
I often advise authors to consider this category. These are books that are great gifts to pop into that gift box. They are also the kind of books readers may keep in the bathroom for a quick dip-in while on the loo. Think light, easy to read and non-narrative. They often fall into the inspirational category: Rumi quotes, mindful thoughts, reflections, prayer journals, joke books, or Zaipiro.
LET’S LOOK LOCAL
Batya Bricker, Exclusive Books general manager, highlights a few unique key trends in the South African market.
*Booktok continues to push booksellers and encourage them to engage readers with fun displays and events. Colleen Hoover displays will dominate.
* The 3rd Rebecca Yaros is coming out in February and will be a huge worldwide event that gets booksellers excited, and bookstores will promote and decorate with flair.
* The stats in the UK show a big drop in children reading for pleasure. Booksellers will worry about that and actively work to address and reverse this trend and bring more children into stores.
*Cookbook sales have declined worldwide because people increasingly cook by watching YouTube videos or using online sources, and the entire cookbook market is changing, and shelves are shrinking.
*True Crime is a rising genre that is very popular both locally and internationally and continues to sell
* Military History or War Books always have a strong interest. There is a good and ongoing demand for South African military stories that holds for both recent military movements as well as African bush wars, border wars, reccie stories and Boer War and general war books.
Top-selling Books in South Africa
English fiction:
#1 The Hidden Girl — Lucinda Riley
#2 It Ends with Us — Colleen Hoover
#3 By Any Other Name — Jodi Picoult
#4 It Starts with Us — Colleen Hoover
#5 Fire on the Horizon — Wilbur Smith
English non-fiction:
#1 Disciple — Rorisang Thandekiso
#2 Atomic Habits — James Clear
#3 The Super Cadres — Pieter du Toit
#4 Nexus — Yuval Noah Harari
#5 The Diary of a CEO — Steven Bartlett
What does Amazon rate?
Amazon has revealed the bestselling and most-read book lists of the year for 2024. Bestsellers take into account the 12 month period and in the last quarter Freida McFadden’s psychological thriller The Housemaid topped the bestsellers list, followed by Colleen Hoover’s BookTok sensation It Ends With Us, released as a film adaptation last year. The ongoing success of these titles also reflects one of the dominant trends in contemporary publishing: the power of social media to drive book sales. The impact of television adaptations was also evident, with Richard Osman's books benefiting from the announced TV adaptation of The Thursday Murder Club series.
The 'most read books' on Amazon
Amazon’s Most Read list showcases a mix of enduring classics that sell forever, rather than the year’s bestsellers J.K. Rowling dominates the list, with all seven Harry Potter books captivating readers years after their release. Remember what we said about longevity?
Most read books on Amazon in 2024
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix by J.K. Rowling
2. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire by J.K. Rowling
3. Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone by J.K. Rowling
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows by J.K. Rowling
5. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince by J.K. Rowling
6. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban by J.K. Rowling
7. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets by J.K. Rowling
8. The Lost Bookshop by Evie Woods
9. The Fellowship of the Ring by J.R.R. Tolkien
10. The Running Grave: Cormoran Strike Book 7 by Robert Galbraith
11. The Thursday Murder Club by Richard Osman
12. The Housemaid by Freida McFadden
13. A Court of Thorns and Roses by Sarah J. Maas
14. His and Hers by Alice Feeney
15. A Court of Mist and Fury by Sarah J. Maas
16. The Last Devil To Die by Richard Osman
17. We Solve Murders by Richard Osman1
8. Dune by Frank Herbert
19. Atomic Habits by James Clear
20. The Bee Sting by Paul Murray
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